27/12/ · so Expected Value = .8) ()+ .2) () = So the average profit per trade with this strategy is pips assuming he makes pips when he is right. This is a legitimate strategy if it is real. Trading Discussion. /. Negative risk reward ratios Back in the UK’s Financial Services regulator, the FCA, conducted a review of retail trading – not just Forex, but all types including CFD trading and binary options – and found 82% of retail traders lost money.. Trading is a zero-sum game so there are going to Bellman-fords algorithm applied to forex pairs best us forex trading platform. Remember the "thin ice'' analogy from currency arbitrage? Path tracing integrals are fairly expensive because states and actions are continuous and each bounce requires ray-intersecting a geometric data structure
Reddit - StockMarket - Trading Options Using Expected Value to Guarantee Profit
tarr11 on Nov 6, [—]. This is just glorified gambling. I am not sure what special insight or advantage he had, negative expected value reddit forex, other than his own model. Every trader has a model. It could have easily been called "how i lost k with machine learning". Like gambling, it's easy to manipulate statistics to show that you did well in some period of time.
I worked for a large investment bank about 10 years ago, writing trading programs for quant traders who were market makers. The quants called guys like him "retail" investors and they gleefully picked off all those trades. It's how they made all their money. So, everyone else, beware of making this a case study in how to make lots of money really fast.
You are more likely to lose money. yajoe on Nov 6, [—]. I love crazy projects and Show HN's until the cows come home, but this one is dangerous that I must repeat the warning to others. It's no different than people who play Texas Hold'em online and speculate what cards negative expected value reddit forex have based on betting patterns, negative expected value reddit forex.
If you get good at spotting the patterns like this guy did you can go on a winning streak, but when the game changes as it did for this individual after then you either go home or go broke, negative expected value reddit forex. This guy found one edge in It won him k. More negative expected value reddit forex any edge ever won me. that please be careful before you follow this course.
His code is unlikely to be worth much today unmodified, and when you modify it you'll realize, as I have, that when the other players have access to the order books and can jump the line you have no chance in the game in One last nit: Please, please post recent data when you talk about projects like this.
Since then there was significant turmoil in the US, Asia, and the EU. How are these returns relevant for today? DennisP on Nov 6, [—]. This is a bit off-topic, but it's actually quite feasible to get a real edge in Hold'em, and it's not just about spotting other people's patterns.
To start with, there's simple probability: knowing the odds of making you hand vs. the payoff in the pot, or the chance of winning with various starting hands.
This is pretty basic but a lot of low-stakes players screw it up. If you get it right, their mistakes are your gain. At a more advanced level, game theory comes into play, using bluffs and so on. The game is complex enough that it's not completely solved, and it's an active area of research.
The University of Alberta is doing a lot of working developing poker bots using game theory. By playing a good strategy, you can prevent other players from exploiting your patterns. Only after you've got a good grasp on all that should you really think much about exploiting a particular player's weaknesses. The Alberta guys are doing work on that part too. Exploitative play can improve your profit but also makes you more vulnerable.
For a good overview of this stuff, the book Mathematics of Poker by Ankenman and Chen is a good place to start.
I agree though that HFT is awfully competitive these days. If I had to choose between the two I'd play poker. ishaanc90 on Nov 7, [—]. I have done HFT, played heads up semi professionally, and for my bachelors thesis wrote a paper on a PLO playing bot.
I studied Alberta's research and it is phenomenal. The parallels that emerge between HFT and a pokerbot is essentially that the architectures of both systems are kind of same and the details are kind of orthogonal.
The edge in Hold'em is kind of gone. PLO is still pretty exploitable though. The same is true with HFT. Most strategies in HFT no longer work but there are definitely ones that still give you a lot of edge-you just have to think harder : just like three betting preflop and cbetting the flop doesnt work anymroe. wallawe on Nov 7, [—]. So true, and frustrating. But, the legalization of online play could bring back another boom at least for a couple of years.
randlet on Nov 6, [—]. Thanks for posting this so I didn't have too. Poker is "a game of skill with an element of luck" and should not be confused with say, gambling on roulette or the outcome of a coin toss.
unreal37 on Nov 6, negative expected value reddit forex, [—]. The same could be said of HFT, negative expected value reddit forex. Traders are "skilled" at having nanosecond access to the orderbook, having their servers co-located in the same rack space as the exchange itself. They are also "skilled" at recognizing a price movement nanoseconds before it actually happens and getting their order in just in time. But the HFT game changes and you have to keep up.
Just as a poker player from 10 years ago would not survive in the game today negative expected value reddit forex adapting his style of play. jspaulding on Nov 6, [—]. Hey, I didn't actually intend this to be a course. I do not make any money in the market right now so am certainly not qualified to teach a course on it. And of course, if I was making money in the market I wouldn't have posted this at all.
So please everyone remember that. These comments have made me realize it's probably for the best if I do not post the source code. Basically you are competing against negative expected value reddit forex of PHDs who are buying buildings next to the exchange so they can get their executions slightly faster.
It is indeed surprising to me that I was able to make money in the first place. But I do know for a fact that I did make money and I also know that I was not at risk of losing a bunch of money. That's all I was risking. kolbe on Nov 6, [—]. FWIW, I couldn't see your pnl chart. I develop algorithmic strategies for a living, and my first reaction to reading your post was skepticism. I'm skeptical for two reasons.
I can't tell you how many people I've worked with who fail to isolate the source of their pnl myself included at times. This is key. It's important to benchmark your strategy against other stupid ones that you know don't have edge. When someone shows me strategies that worked in andI immediately make them prove their strategy was not the equivalent of being long equities.
Doing this will truly help isolate whether or not luck is involved. When you say that the number and size of your trades justifies the strategy's validity, that's just wrong. You could do trades in a day: buy 10 RUT futures at the beginning of the day, sell 10 at the end, and just scratch 1 lots for the other trades. In a bull market likenegative expected value reddit forex, that would have made k, and would have nothing to do with Machine Learning or its applications to HFT.
I make all traders benchmark their work against a series of other strategies that I know have no edge, even though they, at times, can appear to have edge. Now, I'm not saying you didn't have legitimate edge, but you do your readers a disservice by omitting relevant stats and discussions like that.
beagle3 on Nov 6, [—]. It would, negative expected value reddit forex, in fact, closely describe the methods of more than one shop I'm familiar with. Except they WERE able to overcome the declines. And the month indicator lifetime looks eerily familiar. And these places are anything but "convention rules" - it's "creativity rules, before our competitors get creative enough".
You are welcome to demonstrate that there is. Sounds to me like you are doing low frequency strategies; it's a completely different ballgame than HFT. He's donenegative expected value reddit forex, trades, half of them long, half of them short. It might have been luck, and he might have been negative expected value reddit forex something underlying the equities, but this is NOT equivalent to being long equities. He might have found a way to get non-linear leverage rather than prediction.
But that's also worth a lot of money in the right hands. Assuming, of course, he is telling the truth. Thank you. You are right - I should clarify things by saying my program had no directional bias. Are there other stats I'm missing? kolbe on Nov 7, [—].
Moving Average Trading Secrets (This is What You Must Know...)
, time: 26:03Is Forex Trading Worth It or Is It a Waste of Time?
If 50% of the time you win $5, and lose $10 the other 50% of the time, your expected value is negative. EV = probability multiplied by outcome value. Selling calls gives you limited upside, and technically an unlimited downside. They are priced fairly (on average) so your system does not work 13/04/ · 1) Forex is not a get rick quick opportunity. Contrary to what you’ve read on many websites across the web, Forex trading is not going to take your $10, account and turn it into $1 million 13/05/ · I've derived the expected value of the binomial distribution, but I can't seem to figure it out for the negative binomial distribution. My initial approach was to try to factor out a n/x from the binomial coefficient, and then redefine the summation so that the probability then equals 1, but this isn't blogger.comted Reading Time: 30 secs
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